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哈萨克斯坦央行前行长FSDb:中国对亚洲复苏很关键

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020-04-04 17:43:52
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皇家永利在线开户网址【gbh88.wang】【贵宾会.wang】客服热线【+639308758888】★贵宾会(亚洲版)★是全球领先的网络博彩集团之一,提供数字彩票、真人娱乐场、体育投注、小游戏等丰富选择,并提供业界最优惠的红利和返水!哈萨克斯坦央行前行长FSDb:中国对亚洲复苏很关键

哈萨克斯坦央行前行长FSDb:中国对亚洲复苏很关键

  来源pZpVd:国是直通车

  全球疫情形势依然严峻zya4。据美国霍普金斯大学数据ZE,截至北京时间4月2日上午6时fzVj4,全球新冠肺炎确诊病例已突破93万例mJm5,逾4.6万人死亡jBC。

  疫情下Tk,全球经济空前承压zZ。在过去的一个多月里hehd,全球多国股市频繁熔断mc2dvO,资本市场动荡不安lDH4U,经济活动受到疫情影响停滞不前VaSw4A,国际货币基金组织等机构纷纷下调世界经济增速预估1O。

  经济合作及发展组织h8(OECDYQ)在最新发布的jnh《全球经济展望报告pYjvVR》中将2020年全球经济增速预期从新冠疫情暴发前的2.9%下调至2.4%uSbqdK,并警告称9,若新冠疫情持续时间更长,强度更大nL,可能会使2020年全球经济增长率降至1.5%dBxg。

  穆迪全球宏观经济研究团队指出yPc,由于新冠病毒的威胁cXf5W,经济活动将受到限制,人们信心下降mg、预期收入降低BuHCEi、商业投资降低GqKy、就业出现紧缩C2、经济出现衰退AZSDS、消费者的支出也将同步下降eZ,会对GDP增长造成永久性的打击jn。jKKFD“至少到第二季度KN55,全球经济都将急剧收缩d。gi0VAa”

  全球性经济衰退真的到来了吗?疫情对全球经济的冲击又会持续多久xEe?

  阿斯塔纳金融中心主席LcuY、哈萨克斯坦央行前行长凯拉特VrP·克利姆别托夫近日在接受中新社国是直通车的专访中指出7CF,新冠疫情对世界经济短期造成毁灭性的冲击IZD,其长期影响是多方面的w2TW,也呈现出一些正面的溢出效应IP,如催生出诸多基于线上服务的经济新形态Z9L。

  疫情对全球经济的

  长期影响是多方面的

  国是直通车ROC:您如何评估目前新冠疫情对全球经济造成的影响gg?

  凯拉特Wds·克利姆别托夫Mf9:由新冠病毒引起的疫情大流行对全球经济产生了重大影响c。由于各国政府正集中精力解决更紧迫的公共健康危机问题hY42O,疫情带来的短期经济影响似乎是毁灭性的W,对此我们几乎无能为力U。

  目前形势有些严峻UtqWr,且短中期前景不太乐观Zk,然而也存在一些溢出效应vwpR。随着人们削减开支Ot、改变行为COAK,基于提供在线服务的新产品和商业模式有了发展空间eJ。我们已经看到在线娱乐、交付vaO、视频会议和任务管理服务的激增cxe。我现在不得不在家工作LdW7a,而且大部分时间都在使用在线会议来分配任务A6。学校和大学也开始转向在线教育aZ2VoX。

  向这些方式的转变不是进化xSON,而是在巨大外部事件冲击下的结果Yw。人们正在适应新的学习VAXg、工作V1Ph9、娱乐和消费商品和服务的方式e。这场大流行迟早会被击败cxF,但新技术和新商业模式会留存下来,它们将颠覆许多现有的一些机构bUkRI,也将创造新的机会u,特别是对反应速度更快的国家而言。新兴市场将有机会更快地采用新技术Qrv。

  国是直通车ltgX:新冠疫情对世界经济的长期影响会呈现出什么样的特点dz?

  凯拉特rYq·克利姆别托夫8B1:长期的影响是多方面的SaZZ,我将尽量强调最重要的影响VFEbwd。

  第一JFZH、全球需求的下降意味着新兴市场经济增长前景的黯淡ULcW,以及之后这些国家会出现的资本外流状况p7i,尽管世界上有大量的融资MksypV。大多数国家都在实行扩张性的货币和财政政策tH,有大量的货币在流通,虽然在短期内XaDE,货币没有流向投资ojJa,而是以现金的形式被保存jy。

  第二7XA、从中期来看6Pfbyv,尽管资本并不短缺vEm,我们将看到更多的不确定性以及投资的低迷CLc:这次危机将与2008-2009年的金融危机大不相同oaq。好消息是s8d,中国已经开始从衰退中复苏w,而且正在缓慢恢复Lmn,同时西方市场对美国和欧洲的大规模刺激计划反应积极8cZy3,但我们仍需观察其效果是否能够得以持续yb。

  第三D91hI、QcO(全球2Bzvd)供应链不会立即恢复Eo,这意味着经济活动和国际贸易的持续低迷Bq。在国际贸易恢复到以前的水平之前eXEF,我们只有等待疫情的结束nxRM。对于许多国家2p,尤其是依赖出口的发展中国家市场3Uwdz,这将意味着其将面临资金的短缺6Yt,因此需要进行相应的调整QwhuU。同时发生的石油价格战争也将给这些国家带来压力nce8vj。然而I,低油价将使中国和其他石油进口国受益OUu。

  国是直通车6siO3r:当疫情得到遏制后Nr2kc,您认为世界经济将如何复苏RVu?

  凯拉特sYOhI·克利姆别托夫CN:我想特别指出的是D,新冠疫情大流行后的经济状况将会得到显著的重建t7aj。此次危机是一个大规模的市场再分配的窗口期vyZm,因为PPc(全球sXk)供应链遭到破坏N,之后新的贸易路线将被建立w,新的参与者也将由此涌现9T。或许我们将面临类似大萧条时期的局面QkFP,国家在与市场关系中的角色也将发生变化g。

  还有另一种看待当前形势的角度Jsk。近10年来P8s,我们一直处于牛市xLB,这可能是现代史上最长的牛市1Ac。市场调整是不可避免的kCwp,因此市场对新冠疫情大流行的反应如此剧烈并不奇怪hr4,这也意味着市场迟早会做出反应K,回到正常状态2I。目前我们已经在西方市场看到了一些积极的反应s6E。

  中国对于亚洲区域

  经济的复苏十分重要

  眼下亚洲的疫情形势有所缓解Ds5ia,中国xbY7t、日本和韩国的疫情均得到有效控制D7jhx2。但另一方面UcA,亚洲经济体增长面临多重考验3o。

  亚洲开发银行在近期发布的《新型冠状病毒疫情对亚洲发展中国家的经济影响jkE》分析报告中指出P0pf,目前仍在持续的疫情将对亚洲发展中经济体的诸多方面产生影响L,如内需下降BpbX,旅游和商务出行减少KzS7mo,贸易和生产下滑,供应中断sxZVln;经济损失规模将取决于目前仍难以预测的疫情走向Xy。

  评级机构标准普尔也发表报告称T7bnB,新型肺炎疫情冲击亚太地区商业环境及消费者情绪x0oh,欧美各地停工亦会令亚太区陷入衰退pz,需求减弱导致的挑战相当于1997年亚洲金融风暴,预计亚太区可能要到今年稍晚时间才会出现U型复苏yCu,今年区内经济增长只有2.2%v6ooS。

  对此T4ff,凯拉特Qf·克利姆别托夫首先对中国在疫情发生以来无论是疫情防控还是提振经济的一系列举措表达了赞许,同时指出中国在亚洲区域经济复苏过程中的重要性十分显著zlm,中国应该不断加强区域合作k,带动疫情后整个亚洲区域经济的恢复与发展RDlx。

  国是直通车8GVz:您认为疫情结束后亚洲地区的经济复苏应如何开展zH0?

  凯拉特G0exG·克利姆别托夫:中国政府已经出台的一些政策是非常了不起的XUJ。中国正从公共卫生危机中复苏9n,企业也正在恢复正常运作gyh0。

  很高兴看到其他一些亚洲国家也以中国为榜样Pqi,成功地遏制了新冠病毒的传播5t。最重要的第一步已经迈出tEhgE。我们只需要确保新冠疫情被控制住Gmi,并且不会再次出现峰值。

  我确信K5d,中国必须领导整个46EAa(亚洲JWt)地区的发展Upt。中国经济放缓将使本地区其他国家的发展更加复杂MjD,这也是为什么我们必须团结起来恢复亚洲经济的增长7kzs。

  区域伙伴关系将对该地区的每个国家都有利qTlx,特别是在全球经济放缓和许多其他国家和地区可能面临经济衰退的情况下l9ASg。我相信GZ95,这也是中国巩固区域领导地位的绝佳机会JgUcc。

  2Yq1“一带一路HYb4RG”和JAl“数字丝绸之路Nt20Ze”可以成为加强区域合作的最佳工具AIfT,创造许多新的就业机会vu,为支持新的工具和商业模式提供重要的数字基础设施ng。这些政策在最初的iGD“一带一路EEVUc”计划中已经有所暗示ReJ,如今考虑到新冠疫情大流行带来的灾难性冲击4VOvA4,对大多数国家而言qK8FI,创造新就业机会xc、引进新产品和新服务已变得至关重要。

  以下为答问原文l8:

  TopNewsExpressTV:?WhatJ‘s your assessment of the?present?global economic impact of COVID-19om?

  Kairat KelimbetovEAt:The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus has greatly affected global economy. The short-term effects of the pandemic seem devastating and there is little we can dodPT, as the governments are focused on more immediate problem10Y: to solve the health crisis first.

  The situation is somewhat grim and short- to medium-term prospects are not very encouraging. HoweveraCEO0a, there are interesting spillovers. As people cut their expenses and change their behaviorlrnH7, there is space for new products and business modelsRnL, based mostly on providing online services. We already see a surge in online entertainmentKeQ, deliveryckIH0C, and videoconferencing and task management services. I now have to work from home and also spend most of my time using online conferences and distributing tasks. Schools and universities are switching to online education as well.

  The shift to these ways was not evolutionaryE, but as a result of a large external shock. People are adapting to new ways to study4vIh, work80T, entertainhlUQ, and consume goods and services. The pandemic will be defeated sooner or later9f, but new technologies and new business models are here to stay. They will disrupt many existing institutionssTcC, but will also create new opportunitiesQ9Ox, especially for more agile countries. Emerging markets will have a change to adopt new technology faster.

  TopNewsExpressZ:?What will be the lasting global economic consequences of COVID-190?

  Kairat KelimbetovpmL8l:The longer terms impacts are multifacetedqKvXl, I will try to highlight most important ones.

  Decrease in global demand means lower growth prospects for emerging markets and subsequent capital run from these countries6xNlP, even though there is an abundance of financing in the world. Most countries are exercising expansionary monetary and fiscal policiesR, there is a lot of money in circulation3J3, although in the short-term9K, money is not invested and kept in cash.

  In the medium term we will see more uncertainty and low investment even though there is no shortage of capitalwvQ: this crisis will be very different from the financial crisis of 2008-2009. The good thing is that China has already recovered from the decease and is slowly coming backZ44, while Western markets have reacted positively to large stimulus programs in the US and EuropecUtK, but we still have to see whether the effects will be sustainable.

  The supply chains won71B’t recover immediatelyD4i, which means prolonged lower activity and international trade. We will have to wait and see the end of pandemic before international trade will come back to previous levels. For many countriesi, especially developing markets relying on exportskpWUDo, this will mean shortage of capital and need for correspondent adjustments. The oil price war which is happening concurrently will also add pressure for these countries. However5i, lower oil prices will benefit China and other importer countries.

  TopNewsExpressUcV:?What could economic recovery from COVID-19 look like after?the spread of the virus is containedOW?

  Kairat Kelimbetovjk:I want to notice that exclusively in my opinion the economics after coronavirus pandemic will be significantly rebuilt. Such crises are a time of large-scale redistribution of the marketvZQVt, because supply chains ruinjn, and then new trade routes are builtOsHf, in which new participants arise. Perhaps we will face something that will be similar to Great Depression and the role of the state in market relations will also change.

  There is also another way to look at the current situation. For almost a decade we have been seeing bullish marketM4r, it was probably the longest bull run in the modern history. The market correction was inevitablemT, there is no surprise that the markets have reacted so sharply to the pandemic. This also means that sooner or later the markets will react and return to normal statep5, weV0d’ve already seen some positive reactions on Western markets.

  TopNewsExpressY6N:?Do you have any policy response proposal for Asian countries during the period of economic recoverybV?

  Kairat KelimbetovJQJY:The policies already introduced by the Chinese government are truly remarkable. The country is recovering from the healthcare crisis and businesses are going back to normal functioning.??

  It is great to see that some other Asian countries also followed Chinese example and contained the spread of the virus quite successfully. The most important first step has been made already. We only need to make sure that the COVID-19 is contained and there will be no other peaks.

  I am surejT7, that China must lead the development of the whole region. Slowdown of Chinese economy will mean further complications for the development of other countries in the region0AJ, this is why we must all unite to restore Asian growth.

  Regional partnerships will be beneficial for every country in the region8th, especially during the global slowdown and expected recession in many other countries and regions. I believe that this is also a perfect opportunity for China to cement its position as a regional leader.

  Belt and Road Initiative and Digital Silk Road may become an optimal tool to strengthen regional cooperationMaJnxM, create many new jobsY, and provide digital infrastructure important for supporting new instruments and business models. These policies were implied in the initial BRI plansbj, however6UyO, given the calamitous shock of global pandemicy7s, creating new jobs and introducing new goods and services has become vital for most of the countries.

 

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